Poll shows Moore at 39% and Crosby at 34% in Utah's 2nd District race

A poll found Republican U.S. Rep. Blake Moore favored by 39 percent of voters and Democratic challenger Peter Crosby by 34 percent in Utah's redrawn 2nd Congressional District, Cache Valley Daily reported. The poll by Lighthouse Research for the Hinckley Institute of Politics and the Utah Debate Commission surveyed more than 500 voters in the district between Aug. 31 and Sept. 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.32 percent. ^[1]

Libertarian Daniel Cottam, Carlton Bowen of the Independent American Party and unaffiliated candidate Robert Moesinger each received slightly less than 5 percent, and about 11 percent of respondents were undecided, according to the report. The election is Nov. 3. ^[1] The commission's results sheet, dated Sept. 29, lists Moore at 39.0 percent (201 of 515 respondents), Crosby at 34.0 percent (175) and 10.7 percent undecided, and its methodology says the survey combined phone and online interviews and was not weighted. ^[3]

The outlet also reported that Nijinn's TruthIndex, a forecast built from odds on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets, put Moore's chance of winning at 94.8 percent. Nijinn describes its figures as probabilities implied by traders' prices rather than polls or results. ^[1]

The two candidates met Oct. 13 in the only face-to-face debate of the race. Moore told reporters afterward he was confident in his standing and wanted another term to continue work he has begun. The next morning Crosby held a news conference at the Utah Capitol with Utah Democratic Party Chair Brian King, and both said Moore was out of touch with the needs of northern Utah residents. The Utah Democratic Party has said Crosby was within "striking distance." ^[1]

FOX 13 also reported the Utah Debate Commission poll at 39 percent for Moore and 34 percent for Crosby, with nearly 11 percent undecided. At the debate at Utah State University in Logan, both candidates backed local control over data centers, and Crosby criticized Moore's vote for the president's spending bill while Moore defended his work on tariffs. ^[2]